Trump’s Russia Sanctions Waiver Drags Oil Below $100

U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend sweeping sanctions on Russian energy exports pushed global oil prices down roughly 2% Monday, dragging benchmark U.S. crude back below the $100 threshold and reshaping immediate expectations for American fuel costs ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

Brent crude fell 2.1% to $107.55 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate dropped 1.9% to $97.19. The sell-off followed a late-Friday executive order halting broad new penalties against Moscow just days before they were scheduled to take effect.

Trump announced earlier this month that he had reached a diesel deal with Russia specifically targeting elevated U.S. pump prices. Ukraine immediately condemned the waiver. By unlocking additional Russian barrels, the administration is attempting to inject supply into a market strained by the Iran war-driven energy shock that has kept global crude well above pre-conflict levels.

The reprieve offers only partial relief. Shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, keeping a floor under international benchmarks despite the sudden influx of expected Russian exports.

Energy was not the only sector absorbing shocks Monday. France’s CAC 40 sank 1.3% to 7,854.31 after weekend protests over living costs and deteriorating school conditions resulted in more than 2,000 arrests nationwide. French President Emmanuel Macron denounced the violence during a Sunday televised address. Britain’s FTSE 100 lost 0.8%, while Germany’s DAX slipped 1%.

Asian technology stocks continued their erratic swings. South Korea’s Kospi rebounded 1.8% to 5,768.01 but remains down more than 17% over the past month, sitting far below the 9,000 mark it breached in June at the height of the global AI frenzy. Samsung Electronics rose 1.2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 shed 0.6%, weighed down by a 2.6% drop in chip equipment manufacturer Tokyo Electron.

“We’ve been arguing for a while that volatility in tech stocks would pick up as the AI bubble continued to inflate: sharp and short-lived sell-offs were common as the ‘dotcom’ bubble inflated, for example, even as the market ultimately made very large gains on net,” Capital Economics Head of Markets for Asia Pacific Thomas Mathews wrote in a commentary Monday.

Indonesia’s benchmark index cratered more than 5% intraday, touching its lowest point since 2020. The slide compounded an 11% plunge Friday triggered by a warning from MSCI that it could strip the country of its emerging market status. China’s Shanghai Composite edged 0.4% higher to 3,730.92 after Beijing reported 4.5% economic growth for the July-September quarter. Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT fell more than 7% despite forecasting strong nine-month profits.

Wall Street faces another heavy corporate earnings week. Meta, Netflix, General Motors, Tesla and IBM are all scheduled to report. Friday’s session saw the S&P 500 decline 1.1% and the Nasdaq composite sink 2.1%. U.S. equity futures edged higher early Monday.

Capital fleeing equities has found limited refuge in government debt. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury eased to 5.08% from 5.13% Friday. The rate touched 5.35% earlier this month — its highest level since 2002 — as inflation fears stemming from the Middle East conflict and expanding federal deficits forced bondholders to demand steeper returns.

The U.S. dollar bought 158.19 Japanese yen, up slightly from 158.10. The euro traded at $1.1213.