Trump’s $5,000 Dividend Faces a $1.3 Trillion Hurdle

President Donald Trump reiterated Sunday that his proposed $5,000 payments for every American adult would happen, but House Speaker Mike Johnson said Congress would have to authorize the plan. “The 5,000’s going to happen, 100%,” Trump told reporters before boarding Air Force One in Ireland, where he had been attending a professional golf tournament at his resort. “I made the pledge. I always keep my pledge.”

Johnson, a Louisiana Republican leading a historically tight House majority, said the proposal would require lawmakers to act. “I would assume, yes, he’d need Congress to act, and that’s a creative idea,” Johnson said Sunday. “He’s the big idea’s president. We’re going to try to implement everything we can. I commit that Congress will work through it and find consensus on that like they have to do everything else.”

The constitutional issue rests with Article I, which gives Congress exclusive authority over federal spending and appropriations. Any direct distribution of federal funds would therefore require statutory approval and designated revenue sources. Johnson said he would pursue the plan if Republicans retain control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections.

Trump introduced the proposed “Trump Dividend” at the Republican Party’s midterm convention in Dallas. In an interview with CBS News Texas after the convention, he said he did not believe congressional approval would be necessary, although he did not outline a legal mechanism or executive framework for spending more than $1 trillion without a congressional appropriation.

The estimated cost is based on approximately 260 million adults currently residing in the United States. At $5,000 per person, the payments would total about $1.3 trillion, while the federal government’s existing budget deficit is already running at nearly $1.8 trillion annually.

Trump said the government’s fiscal position could support the payout. “We can easily handle that because we’re taking in so much money,” he said, adding that the country has “never done better” economically.

The proposed disbursement would be larger than previous federal direct payment programs. Congress authorized $1,200 stimulus checks for eligible adults under the 2020 CARES Act at a cost of roughly $300 billion, followed by $600 checks in late 2020 and $1,400 payments under the 2021 American Rescue Plan, which totaled around $411 billion. Trump’s proposal would more than double the combined cost of those pandemic-era direct payment programs.

Republicans would face major legislative hurdles even if they moved forward. Johnson’s House margin is thin, and major spending legislation in the Senate typically requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Lawmakers could use the complex budget reconciliation process, which permits certain fiscal bills to pass with a simple majority but restricts long-term deficit expansions.

The proposal arrives as persistent inflation and high interest rates continue to pressure the U.S. economy. Borrowing costs have risen for consumers and businesses, while real wage growth has slowed. Consumer sentiment remains low, partly because retail gasoline prices have spiked amid ongoing military conflict involving Iran.

Trump addressed energy costs Sunday by predicting that gas prices would “drop like a rock.” He also indicated that no immediate diplomatic agreement or resolution was on the horizon to end the hostilities with Iran or safely reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key international shipping route carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s petroleum supply.

Those economic conditions present political challenges for governing Republicans before the midterms. A July poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that Trump’s job approval rating was 33%, down from 37% in June and 42% at the start of his presidency. Majorities of U.S. adults disapproved of his handling of the economy and immigration, the core platform issues of his election campaign.