SpaceX AI Revenue Triples as Debt Forecast Balloons to $350B
Debt is projected to reach $350 billion by 2029 as the company shifts focus from Starlink subscriber growth to AI infrastructure leasing.
SpaceX is financing a massive pivot into artificial intelligence infrastructure by taking on debt at a pace rarely seen outside sovereign borrowing. The company reported third-quarter revenue of $14.6 billion Tuesday, but the underlying financial mechanics point toward a balance sheet stretched to accommodate an aggressive capital expenditure cycle.
Total debt is projected to climb from $50.7 billion this year to $350 billion by 2029, according to Melissa Otto, global head of Visible Alpha research at S&P Global Market Intelligence. That nearly sevenfold increase tracks directly with plans to almost triple annual capital spending from roughly $70 billion in fiscal 2025 to $197.4 billion by fiscal 2028.
The cash fueling that expansion comes largely from the company’s newly rebranded “Super Intelligence” segment. Revenue from computing capacity leased to Anthropic, Google, Grok and X hit $7.56 billion in the third quarter, up from $2.56 billion in the second quarter and well above the $6.47 billion consensus estimate compiled by Visible Alpha. Total quarterly revenue rose 161% year-over-year, beating the $12.86 billion analyst expectation. Operating income swung to a $2.79 billion profit from a $143 million loss in the prior period.
Net income registered at $4.4 million, or 35 cents a share, recovering from a $541 million net loss in the second quarter and a $5.5 billion deficit a year ago.
Starlink, long considered the primary growth engine for SpaceX since its satellite internet rollout began, is now trailing the AI business in momentum. Connectivity revenue rose 69% to $5.25 billion against a $4.92 billion expectation, with operating income nearly doubling to $2.37 billion. But consumer subscriber additions disappointed. Starlink added 1.6 million users in the quarter, falling short of the 2.29 million analysts predicted.
To shore up the connectivity business, SpaceX moved earlier this month to acquire 800 megahertz-band licenses from investment firm Grain Management. The Wall Street Journal reported the price tag at $8 billion. The deal, designed to push Starlink Mobile phone service indoors, remains subject to Federal Communications Commission approval. Space revenues overall rose 6% to $1.77 billion, exceeding the $1.46 billion forecast.
Capital spending reached $19.6 billion in the third quarter alone. The earnings release did not include a full-year capex forecast, leaving analysts without a definitive near-term roadmap for how fast the company intends to deploy cash.
Otto noted before the results were released that consensus estimates pegged connectivity-specific capex surging from $4.2 billion in fiscal 2025 to $22.8 billion in fiscal 2028.
Chief Executive Elon Musk posted on X Monday that he intends to offer a share of SpaceX stock to “every kid in America” next year. U.S. Census figures indicate there are approximately 72 million children under 18, valuing the proposed distribution at roughly $10.5 billion. All of Musk’s shares remain locked up until 2027 under an agreement signed prior to the company’s June initial public offering.
