Only 1 in 10 Americans Trust Party Campaigns as Trust in Election Certification Drops to 34%

Nearly half of U.S. adults report being “extremely” or “very” concerned that the federal government will publicly discredit or question election outcomes, tamper with election results, or pressure state election administrators to alter how vote totals are certified and reported, according to a survey conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and USA Facts. The erosion in certification trust is particularly pronounced among Democrats, falling from 65% in 2024 to 44% in the current poll. Among Republicans, high trust in government certifications stands at 29%, showing little movement from 2024 despite President Donald Trump regaining executive authority.

The poll sampled 1,036 adults using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, designed to reflect the demographic composition of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The margin of error is plus or minus 6.4 percentage points for Republicans and plus or minus 6.0 percentage points for Democrats. Established in 1941, NORC is an independent research institution based at the University of Chicago. Only 34% of U.S. adults say they trust government certifications of election results “a great deal” or “quite a bit.” That figure represents a drop from 40% in 2024. State and local certification—a historically routine ministerial procedure where county boards, election canvassers, and secretaries of state validate vote tallies under statutory framework—has faced heightened political polarization following disputes surrounding the 2020 presidential election.

“My concern is more about what the current administration is doing,” said Kim Murza, 45, a Democrat from Colorado who expressed trust in the general election process. “I think they are doing whatever they can to try to put that distrust in people’s minds.” Public trust in campaign communications from both major political parties has largely collapsed. Only about 1 in 10 U.S. adults believe campaign messages from either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party are “always” or “often” grounded in factual information. Skepticism toward party messaging cuts across party lines: just 44% of Democrats trust Democratic Party messages to be factual at least “often,” and approximately one-quarter of Republicans say the same regarding Republican Party messaging.

These concerns arrive as the White House pushes for sweeping changes to federal voting guidelines ahead of the midterms. Trump has continued to repeat debunked claims regarding mass voter fraud in 2020 while advocating for new restrictions on mail-in balloting and urging Congress to enact mandatory proof-of-citizenship requirements for voter registration, similar to the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act. Concurrently, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has issued warnings to state election authorities, cautioning that federal funding could be withheld or federal investigations initiated if states fail to comply with executive election security directives. The sole policy area surveyed that demonstrated no significant partisan divide was public guidance regarding vaccine recommendations and safety. Roughly 6 in 10 Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike state they trust official federal government information on vaccination safety “only a little” or “not at all.”

“It’s pretty hard to trust anything that’s being communicated,” said Shannon Ingram, 46, a Democrat from Maryland, pointing to changing public health advisories. “There is a significant amount of bias, and it comes from the people who are authoring the content.” Skepticism toward federal government data has broadened across nearly every major policy area, intensified by an extended period of structural upheaval within the executive branch. Since taking office for his second term, Trump has moved to dismantle key segments of the federal bureaucracy, eliminating long-standing administrative programs and attempting to shutter specific federal agencies. These restructuring efforts have resulted in thousands of federal employees being fired or resigning. The loss of veteran statisticians, economists, and career civil servants across civil service agencies—such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Census Bureau, and the Department of Health and Human Services—has drawn warnings from nonpartisan research experts regarding risks to the quality and objectivity of official government statistics.

Overall, approximately 6 in 10 U.S. adults express low levels of trust in federal information regarding foreign affairs, the environment, immigration, abortion, and elections, stating they trust government statements on these matters “only a little” or “not at all.” Disbelief in federal education data and policy guidance saw a significant surge, rising from 37% in 2019 to 53% in the latest poll, fueled by a 9-percentage-point increase over the past year. Jeremy Cove, 44, a Republican from Missouri, noted that while he supports the Trump administration’s vaccine guidance, he rejects executive claims denying human-driven climate change. “I love Trump; I voted for Trump, but some of the things he’s doing just makes me distrust more,” Cove said. “Stuff like renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America, it just makes you think about what their priorities are. Then you realize it’s not what it should be, which in turn, makes you distrust even more.”

Public skepticism has also tracked major federal policy shifts and regulatory rollbacks. Earlier this year, the Environmental Protection Agency rescinded the landmark 2009 Endangerment Finding—a scientific determination under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act that declared greenhouse gases pose a threat to public health and welfare, which served as the baseline authority for federal climate regulations for over fifteen years. Meanwhile, alterations to long-standing health advisories have created public friction between federal agencies and professional medical associations over routine immunization schedules. Currently, 61% of Democrats express low trust in federal budget numbers, compared with 42% of Republicans. On federal crime statistics, 60% of Democrats report low trust, compared to 32% of Republicans.

Partisan divisions regarding federal information have widened considerably compared to Trump’s first presidential term. Under former President Joe Biden, Republican mistrust in executive branch data climbed while Democratic mistrust declined. Following Trump’s return to the presidency, Democratic skepticism spiked while Republican mistrust dropped. “Generally speaking, I’ve got more confidence in the federal government today than I’ve had in years,” said Larry Haith, 76, a Republican from Idaho, while noting that his confidence fluctuates depending on which party controls the executive branch. Independents, by contrast, grew increasingly distrustful of government information during the Biden administration and have maintained high levels of skepticism under the current administration.

The poll was conducted from July 29 to August 10 by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research alongside USA Facts, a nonpartisan civic organization founded in 2017 by former Microsoft chief executive Steve Ballmer to provide accessible official government data.