Houthi Seizure of Yemen Port Pushes Oil Past $100 as Two Key Straits Face Siege

International benchmark Brent crude surged more than 5% to $106.60 a barrel in late Thursday trading, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since May. The market disruption reflects severe shifts in global oil logistics recorded over recent months as crude prices surged past $100 a barrel, driven by a simultaneous squeeze on the two primary maritime chokepoints of the Arabian Peninsula.

The fall of Mocha and the rapid advance of Houthi fighters toward positions directly overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have effectively exposed the limits of Saudi Arabia’s strategy to bypass the constrained Strait of Hormuz. According to data released Sept. 9 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil and petroleum liquids moving through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait rose to an average of 8.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, up from 5.4 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Yemeni government sources confirmed Thursday that Houthi forces seized control of Mocha and pushed forward to occupy positions near the strategic Hanish Islands archipelago in the southern Red Sea. That increase in Bab el-Mandeb traffic was largely driven by Saudi Arabia rerouting crude shipments across its 746-mile East-West Pipeline—also known as the Petroline—from its Eastern Province fields to the Red Sea port terminal of Yanbu to avoid transit risks through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, traffic through Hormuz collapsed during the same period, falling from 21.6 million barrels per day to 4.9 million barrels per day. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which measures just 18 miles across at its narrowest point between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, serves as the critical southern gateway connecting the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and the SUMED pipeline.

Saudi-backed forces affiliated with the internationally recognized Republic of Yemen Government retreated south toward Dhubab, a coastal district situated directly opposite Perim Island—also known as Mayun Island. Control of Dhubab and Perim Island is widely regarded by military experts as critical to commanding physical oversight of the narrow shipping channels that form the entrance to the strait. Together, these maritime routes handle approximately 10 to 12 percent of total seaborne trade worldwide.

“Now you have Iran on one side of the Arabian Peninsula controlling Hormuz, and now the Houthis controlling Bab el-Mandeb on the other side of the peninsula,” said Hisham Al-Omeisy, senior Yemen adviser at the European Institute of Peace. “Which basically is going to drive prices — oil prices, goods and everything else — up exponentially.”

The retreat of government forces also resulted in substantial losses of military hardware. Al-Omeisy noted that retreating units left behind stockpiles of munitions, military vehicles, weapons, and uncrewed aerial vehicles at abandoned coastal camps, which Houthi forces are now repositioning for use on other active fronts across Yemen. The loss of Mocha comes amid what the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) identified on Sept. 9 as the most acute escalation in fighting since active military hostilities resumed in mid-July.

“People are focused on taking Mocha and those outposts on the Red Sea,” Al-Omeisy said. “But the military side is terrible, particularly the equipment, the munitions, the vehicles, the drones that were at those military camps, which they can now, in turn, use against the government forces elsewhere.” ACLED documented at least 276 combat-related fatalities between Sept. 3 and Sept. 7 as ground engagements expanded across seven Yemeni governorates: al-Dali, al-Bayda, Marib, Shabwa, al-Jawf, al-Hudayda, and Taizz.

Sherwan Hindreen Ali, ACLED’s Middle East research manager, highlighted that combat along the Red Sea coast had intensified as both the Houthis and the Saudi-backed coalition sought to secure territorial control along the shipping corridor. Ali noted that Saudi forces conducted at least 15 airstrikes against Houthi positions between Sept. 3 and Sept. 7—primarily concentrated in Taizz governorate—marking the highest single-week volume of Saudi aerial attacks since Riyadh renewed direct military engagements in July.

The Houthis retaliated on Sept. 8 by launching their largest coordinated offensive against targets inside Saudi Arabia since March 2022. The attack involved dozens of long-range ballistic missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles directed at southwestern Saudi urban and military centers, including Abha, Jizan, Najran, and Khamis Mushait, resulting in 73 reported injuries. Satellite imagery gathered by Planet Labs PBC on Sept. 9 confirmed structural damage at King Khalid Airbase near Khamis Mushait, a major military facility supporting Saudi coalition operations.

Western and regional intelligence assessments indicate direct Iranian involvement in enabling the Houthi territorial push. Sources within the Yemeni government and regional security establishments reported Thursday that officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) provided logistical planning and tactical guidance for the Mocha offensive. Two Iranian sources acknowledged that officials in Tehran instructed Houthi leadership to step up strikes against Saudi infrastructure while promising expanded financial assistance, advanced armaments, and additional technical advisors.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has publicly denied directing Houthi operational decisions. The rapid ground developments have strained newly established security frameworks in the region. Last month in Mecca, Saudi Arabia signed a pact with Pakistan and Turkey establishing a mutual defense arrangement under which an armed attack on one signatory would be treated as an attack on all three.

However, following the Houthi missile and drone strikes on Saudi territory, Pakistani officials signaled reluctance to trigger military commitments. “There is no such thing under discussion right now,” Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Sajjad Haider Khan said Thursday regarding potential military intervention under the trilateral agreement. “When time comes [we] will act under the agreement.”

Addressing the maritime escalation, a senior U.S. administration official stated on background that Washington remains committed to maintaining freedom of navigation through critical international waterways while encouraging regional governments to lead security operations. “The United States is focused on protecting our core national security interests — such as ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea — while empowering our regional partners to take the lead in managing and resolving regional security challenges,” the official said. “We are in continuous dialogue with Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Yemen Government regarding regional stability.”

Houthi representatives stated Thursday that international commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb remains unimpeded, maintaining that their naval blockade applies strictly to Saudi-flagged and Saudi-linked vessels. Al-Omeisy warned that reversing Houthi control over coastal territories around Bab el-Mandeb would require extensive military operations, given the group’s historical pattern of military fortification. “The Houthis are really good at capturing a position, they entrench really well,” Al-Omeisy said. “They send these massive reinforcements, and then it’s going to be extremely difficult to push them out of those areas.”