Brent Crude Hits $95.40 as Year-Over-Year Surge Extends Beyond $28

A 12-month surge in energy costs has pushed crude up by $28.19 over the past year, with the Brent benchmark trading at $95.40 per barrel at 6:15 a.m. Eastern Time today. The level marks a $1.80 increase from yesterday morning, compounding a sustained upward trajectory in global petroleum markets.

Will oil prices go up?

Predicting oil prices remains inherently difficult. Although numerous variables influence energy markets, fundamental supply and demand dynamics drive overall price direction. During periods marked by recession worries, military conflict, or major structural disruptions, crude values can swing suddenly.

How oil prices translate to gas pump prices

The retail price paid per gallon at the pump combines several underlying expenditures. Crude oil serves as the foundational component, but consumers also pay for refining operations, wholesale distribution networks, government tax levies, and gas station markups.

Because crude oil typically represents more than half the total cost of a gallon of gasoline, it drives retail price shifts more than any other factor. Rapid spikes in oil prices almost always register immediately at retail stations. Drops in crude costs, by contrast, yield noticeably slower retail reductions—a structural market tendency known as the “rockets and feathers” effect.

This pricing asymmetry occurs because retail station operators typically adjust pump prices upward immediately following a crude spike to protect profit margins against rising wholesale replacement costs. Conversely, downward adjustments lag as competitive market dynamics and existing inventory buffers slow retail price cuts.

The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

During severe emergency supply disruptions, the U.S. draws on a dedicated emergency stockpile known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its core function is maintaining national energy security during severe storm damage, international sanctions, or military conflicts. The reserve can also cushion extreme consumer price spikes when global supply takes a direct hit.

The stockpile is not intended as a long-term economic remedy. Instead, it acts as an immediate short-term buffer to shield households and maintain baseline operations across essential economic sectors, including public transportation, emergency services, and heavy industry.

How oil and natural gas prices are linked

Oil and natural gas represent the primary energy commodities powering global commerce. Significant shifts in crude oil pricing frequently spill over into natural gas markets. For example, when crude prices climb, commercial facilities may substitute natural gas across eligible operational processes, driving up natural gas demand.

Historical performance of oil

The international oil market tracks two primary pricing benchmarks:

Brent crude oil (the main global oil benchmark)

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (the main benchmark of North America)

Between these standard benchmarks, Brent provides a broader perspective on international energy performance because it anchors pricing for most globally traded crude. It serves as the primary gauge for assessing historical crude trends, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

Multi-decade historical data for the Brent benchmark shows long-term volatility. Prices have experienced sharp spikes during wars and supply restrictions, offset by severe drops tied to global economic recessions and market oversupply (known as a “glut”). Key historical milestones include:

• The early 1970s marked the first major oil shock when Middle Eastern producers reduced output and instituted an export embargo against the U.S. and allied nations during the Yom Kippur War.
• Prices declined during the mid-1980s as global demand softened and non-OPEC suppliers expanded production.
• Prices rallied sharply in 2008 on expanding global demand before collapsing during the global financial crisis.
• During 2020 COVID lockdowns, energy demand experienced an unprecedented collapse that drove prices below $20 per barrel.

Ultimately, historical crude performance displays ongoing instability, remaining vulnerable to armed conflict, economic recessions, OPEC policy shifts, and changing regulatory frameworks.

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Frequently asked questions

How is the current price of oil per barrel actually determined?

Crude oil pricing per barrel reflects supply and demand balances alongside market expectations surrounding future supply constraints, such as geopolitical shocks or OPEC+ production targets. U.S. regulatory policy also influences price projections based on anticipated domestic development. In 2025, the Trump administration moved to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy restricting Arctic energy development.

How often does the price of oil change during the day?

Oil prices update continuously while futures markets remain open. Futures markets function as continuous open auctions where market participants trade standardized contracts for future delivery, generating price fluctuations as trades execute.

How does U.S. shale oil production affect the current price of oil?

Shale formations consist of sedimentary rock holding trapped crude oil and natural gas reserves. Increased U.S. extraction of shale resources expands total global output, helping constrain upward price spikes through increased supply availability.

How does the current price of oil impact inflation and the broader economy?

Higher crude prices create broad inflationary pressure by increasing consumer costs for residential heating and utility services while expanding transport expenses across commercial supply chains. Increased diesel and jet fuel costs elevate freight rates for shipping agricultural commodities and manufactured inventory from farms and distribution hubs onto retail shelves.