Fall Travel Demand Erodes Shoulder-Season Discounts as Nightly Rental Rates Near Summer Peaks

Surging autumn travel demand is squeezing traditional shoulder-season savings, narrowing average nightly lodging discounts across top travel destinations to just 5% below peak summer rates.

Fall travel interest on Vrbo is up 17% from a year ago, while average nightly rates after summer are now just 5% below peak summer prices across the platform’s top destinations, according to new data from the vacation rental platform.

“Shoulder season is this magic time between Labor Day and the holiday travel season when, traditionally, prices have dropped pretty dramatically and crowds have thinned out,” Vrbo Travel Expert Melanie Fish told FOX Business. “Well, summer travel demand is now bleeding over into fall.”

Travelers are pictured at Los Angeles International Airport on June 29, 2023. Some of the best savings remain in beach destinations, overseas markets and trips booked for later in the fall. (Brittany Murray/MediaNews Group/Long Beach Press-Telegram via Getty Images)

This rate squeeze is affecting major U.S. metropolitan hubs, where autumn pricing remains elevated. Vrbo reports rising fall lodging rates in cities such as Nashville, Boston, Chicago, and Miami as post-summer tourism demand holds strong. U.S. hospitality tracking from research firm STR reveals autumn hotel average daily rates across top urban markets have closed within single-digit percentages of July peak levels.

Despite broad upward pressure on prices, select coastal markets still offer noticeable discounts from summer peak levels. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, tops Vrbo’s list, with vacation rental rates averaging 34% less than during summer. One highlighted property drops from $1,300 per night in August to about $600 in October.

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, tops Vrbo’s list, with vacation rental rates averaging 34% less than during summer. (Edwin Remsberg / VWPics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Other regional beach locations are also delivering fall savings. Orange Beach, Alabama, features average savings of 31%, followed by Panama City Beach, Florida, at 24%, Santa Rosa Beach, Florida, at 16%, and Ocean City, Maryland, at 12%, according to Vrbo data.

For international travel, European vacation rental prices drop an average of 8% from summer highs. Larger price drops are concentrated in regional destinations including Corfu, Crete, Girona, the Azores, and Siena, whereas high-density tourism capitals such as London, Paris, Madrid, and Rome maintain higher pricing with fewer shoulder-season bargains.

Travelers walk on a concourse at Chicago O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, Illinois on January 15, 2026. Beach markets still offer some of the biggest savings. (Daniel SLIM / AFP via Getty Images)

Sustained passenger traffic continues to underpin the elevated rates, with Transportation Security Administration checkpoint passenger counts exceeding 2.4 million daily travelers into mid-autumn. Rates drop more significantly for travelers booking beyond the primary holiday calendar, as post-New Year lodging through early 2027 is projected to sit 34% below summer peak rates in markets like San Diego, Los Angeles, and Orlando.