Huobi Co-founder Predicts Three-Year Wait for New Bitcoin Records Amid Bear Market

Bitcoin may not see new record highs until late 2024 or early 2025, according to Du Jun, co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Huobi. He shared this prediction in a recent interview with CNBC.

Du Jun, basing his assessment on previous market cycles, estimates that the leading cryptocurrency will not experience a significant surge for nearly three years. He believes Bitcoin is currently “at the beginning of a bear market.”

Bitcoin: Cycles Linked to Halvings

Like many market observers, Du Jun attributes Bitcoin’s market cycles to its halving events. These occur approximately every four years, reducing the rate at which new BTC is issued by half. The next halving, expected around May 4, 2024, will cut miner rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. This event could then be followed by a new bull cycle.

While the most recent halving in May 2020 did not immediately impact Bitcoin’s price, it preceded a substantial rally. Bitcoin surged from $8,600 to $63,500 in less than a year following that event.

Despite this, several analysts continue to use halving cycles to forecast Bitcoin’s price movements. Among them is “PlanB,” creator of the “Stock to Flow” model, which attempts to value BTC based on changes in its scarcity.

According to PlanB, Bitcoin’s price should average $100,000 between the third halving (May 11, 2020) and the upcoming fourth halving (around May 4, 2024).

Crypto Markets: Down 41% Since November 2021 Peak

Du Jun’s recent predictions may not concern Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum. At the recent ETHDenver conference, the programmer stated that a prolonged “bear market” would provide ideal working conditions for developers.

At the time of writing, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $1.722 trillion, representing a decline of more than 41% from its all-time high of over $2.950 trillion recorded in November 2021.

The “Fear & Greed” index, which measures market sentiment toward Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies, registered 25 — a score indicative of “extreme fear.”

This article does not constitute investment advice. We cannot be held responsible for any capital losses resulting from its reading.