To Defeat Iran, the U.S. Must Strangle Its Economy Rather Than Rely on Airstrikes, Warns Mark Esper

The United States cannot bomb its way to victory against Iran and must instead deploy a devastating economic blockade to force open the vital Strait of Hormuz, according to Donald Trump’s former defense secretary.

The warning comes as the U.S. launched a fresh wave of military strikes against Iranian targets on Wednesday. President Trump has signaled his intention to intensify these aerial operations in the coming weeks, aiming to pressure the Islamic republic into negotiating a new diplomatic agreement. However, Mark Esper, who served as the U.S. defense chief during Trump’s first term in office, expressed deep skepticism about the long-term efficacy of a purely military campaign.

Speaking to reporters, Esper argued that sustained air campaigns would do little to alter Tehran’s strategic calculations or its determination to “keep control of the strait.”

“I’m not confident that if we picked up the bombing the way we did months ago and sustained it for a period of time, that that would have a big change,” Esper said.

The geopolitical temperature in the Middle East spiked earlier this month when Trump declared that a short-lived ceasefire with Iran was officially “over.” The president asserted that Tehran had violated a memorandum of understanding with the U.S., which was designed to guarantee free maritime transit through the waterway while both nations pursued a more permanent diplomatic resolution. This renewed outbreak of hostilities threatens to plunge the region back into active conflict, raising fears of a severe inflationary shock to the global economy.

The Strait of Hormuz is widely considered the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, serving as the primary transit route for approximately 20 percent of global petroleum liquids. Since the outbreak of hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, Tehran has effectively closed the passage, leaving commercial shipping traffic at a mere fraction of its pre-conflict levels.

Addressing an audience of national security experts in Aspen on Tuesday, Esper emphasized that the Trump administration must shift toward comprehensive economic pressure if it hopes to resolve the maritime standoff, which has already driven up global energy costs.

“How do you pressure them?” Esper said in a follow-up interview on Wednesday. “One option is you resort to full military onslaught. The other one is you strangle them economically.”

However, Esper cautioned that an economic strategy is not a quick fix. It would require “time, patience [and] discipline,” alongside robust international cooperation, to yield results. “And the cost for us is going to be higher gas prices for a while,” he added during the panel discussion.

Energy markets are already pricing in the heightened risks. Brent crude, the global benchmark, has surged 16 percent since the beginning of July, trading around $85 a barrel as escalation continues. Oil industry executives and market analysts have warned that global crude inventories are dangerously depleted. A prolonged closure of the strait could trigger a dramatic spike in prices, potentially eclipsing the triple-digit highs seen during the initial phases of the war.

Compounding these concerns, fresh U.S. government energy data released on Wednesday revealed that the nation’s total inventory of stored crude oil fell again last week, dropping to its lowest level since 1984. Retail gasoline prices are already ticking upward as supplies tighten, threatening to trigger a fresh wave of inflation just as consumer price growth appeared to cool in June.

Esper, whom Trump dismissed shortly after the 2020 presidential election, also raised concerns about the domestic toll of an extended military engagement. U.S. defense analysts estimate that the Pentagon has already expended tens of billions of dollars and depleted years’ worth of critical munitions stockpiles in a conflict with no clear end in sight.

“What is the cost for us in terms of readiness, munitions, stockpiles,” Esper noted, pointing to the broader strategic picture. “Because my big concern globally is China.”

During the Aspen forum, Esper outlined “two yardsticks” by which he would evaluate the success of the administration’s campaign against Iran. The first is a return to the status quo ante in the Strait of Hormuz, marked by the complete restoration of free commercial shipping. The second is the negotiation of a comprehensive nuclear agreement that is “at least as good as—but needs to be probably better than” the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated under President Barack Obama, which Trump unilaterally dismantled in 2018.

Condoleezza Rice, who served as secretary of state under President George W. Bush during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, joined Esper on the panel and strongly endorsed the call for intensified economic warfare.

Rice argued that the U.S. should ramp up sanctions and “just let them sit there and stew in their lousy economy, where most of their A-level nuclear scientists have been killed, where I believe there are deep splits in the Iranian government . . . and let’s just see what happens to that economy over time.”

With additional reporting by Steff Chávez in Washington.