$100 Oil and a Jobs Blowout Threaten a Fed Rate Hike—But Bitcoin Traders Aren’t Backing Down

Bitcoin’s hot summer has run into Red September again. The cryptocurrency fell close to 1% Tuesday after a 20% rally, while Wall Street began pricing in a monetary shock. On Myriad, however, traders continued to act as though the seasonal pattern could be broken, assigning strong odds to Bitcoin reaching $84,000 before falling to $55,000.

Friday’s hiring blowout showed U.S. employers added 162,000 positions in August, nearly triple the 53,000 economists had forecast. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%. The Federal Reserve rate hike odds CME FedWatch tool showed a roughly 57% to 59% chance of a quarter-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting. At the same time, fresh U.S.-Iran fighting in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil toward $100 a barrel. More than 20 million barrels of petroleum and liquefied natural gas pass through the waterway each day, representing roughly 20% of global petroleum liquid consumption. During earlier geopolitical supply shocks, including the 2019 tanker attacks and the 2022 energy spikes, energy-driven cost-push inflation forced the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish even when domestic economic data softened. A hot labor market and an external energy shock now point in the same direction, leaving Jerome Powell with less room to argue for cheaper money while the Fed weighs both inflation and employment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 614.88 points, or 1.15%, to 52,799.37. Bitcoin slipped 0.72% to $78,524.

Bitcoin opened Tuesday at $79,090 and fell as low as $77,603 before settling near $78,524. The move followed a climb from a $68,858 swing low to an $82,281 high. The S&P 500 opened at 7,717.81, briefly declined to 7,689.80 and finished down 0.37%. It remains close to its August 13 record close of 7,798.99, while global bank HSBC has raised its year-end target for the index to 8,100. Both markets are digesting the same headwinds, but their risk profiles are producing very different forms of pressure.

Bitcoin’s pullback leaves the current golden zone between $73,986 and $75,569. The price remains above that band. That support area is where the Bitcoin price prediction September outlook meets the market’s immediate technical test, with the coin still well above its recent low despite the reversal from $82,281.

With the ADX sitting at 47.2, the momentum is not just noise. The Average Directional Index measures trend strength without specifying direction, and readings above 25 are generally treated as evidence of a meaningful trend. Its directional lines continue to favor buyers. The Relative Strength Index stands at 60.4, down from 66.1 a week earlier but still in bullish territory.

The 50-day exponential moving average remains below the 200-day version. That bearish crossover has been in place since before August’s rally, even though Bitcoin closed August above its 50-month moving average for the first time since last year’s crypto winter began. A looming golden cross could change that configuration if the EMA50 moves above the EMA200.

A potential Bitcoin golden cross EMA signal is part of the reason traders remain optimistic, but the pattern is not automatically a confirmation of further gains. Historically, deep bearish crossovers can make a later Golden Cross a lagging signal that draws retail buyers after institutional liquidity has begun to leave. When Bitcoin fails to clear major psychological resistance such as $80,000 to $84,000 during a hawkish Federal Reserve shift, previous cycles have produced rapid declines toward primary weekly support bands. The current Bitcoin golden cross EMA setup therefore carries both a bullish trigger and a contrarian warning.

The risk of a Strait of Hormuz oil price impact extends beyond Tuesday’s market decline. Higher energy costs can move through shipping and manufacturing, adding pressure to inflation just as the August jobs report reduces the Fed’s justification for rate cuts. The prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike raises borrowing costs, encouraging traders to favor safer assets over volatile positions such as crypto. That is the structural threat facing Bitcoin’s golden zone, even while the chart remains above it.

On Myriad, the Myriad prediction market crypto contracts imply a 78.4% chance that Bitcoin reaches $84,000 before falling to $55,000. The reading was 77% a week earlier and has barely changed despite Bitcoin moving between roughly $76,877 and an intraday four-month high of $82,240 during that period. Traders are still betting that the coin can break through the $80,000-to-$84,000 resistance area and complete the potential Golden Cross. Their Bitcoin price prediction September view is an attempt to rewrite Red September, while the jobs data and oil shock leave next week’s central-bank decision as the unresolved test.