Week 7 College Football Upsets: Missouri, Kansas Threaten Favorites

Three former Ole Miss starters now lining up for Missouri could dismantle the Rebels’ defense from the inside out in Oxford this Saturday, anchoring a Week 7 college football slate defined by portal-driven revenge narratives and coaching transitions gone wrong.

The transfer portal has fundamentally altered SEC rivalries, but rarely does it produce a scenario like Missouri’s visit to Ole Miss. Wide receiver Cayden Lee, cornerback Chris Graves Jr., and defensive lineman Austin Simmons all started for the Rebels during their 2025 College Football Playoff run before moving to Columbia. Lee currently leads the Tigers with 42 receptions, 616 yards, and five touchdowns. Ole Miss head coach Pete Golding acknowledged the talent drain this week, while Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz noted that his new players spent three years practicing against the exact schemes they will face Saturday. The Tigers (4-1) have not lost since blowing a fourth-quarter lead at Mississippi State, and their defense ranks fifth nationally in adjusted EPA per play. Combined with a rushing attack averaging 181.7 yards per game, Missouri enters as a 5.5-point underdog with a legitimate path to an outright victory against an Ole Miss team still managing running back Kewan Lacy’s injury recovery.

In Manhattan, a 17-year drought is colliding with a first-year head coach’s growing pains. Kansas has not beaten Kansas State since 2008, but the betting market has slashed the spread from 8.5 points down to 4.5 in favor of the Wildcats. Collin Klein, who played for Kansas State during both the final Jayhawk win and the 2009 victory that ignited the streak, has seen his team drop its first two Big 12 games. The Wildcats managed only 16 points in a home loss to Houston last week. Kansas brings a superior defense ranked 20th in adjusted EPA per play compared to Kansas State’s 73rd mark. The emotional variable is running back Dylan Edwards, who transferred from Kansas State to Lawrence. Head coach Lance Leipold remains 0-5 against the Wildcats, but if the Jayhawks can restrict quarterback Avery Johnson to fewer than 24 points, the Sunflower Showdown could finally shift.

Quarterback instability defines several of the weekend’s most volatile matchups. Oregon hosts Nebraska without a confirmed starter after Dante Moore suffered a concussion against USC on Sept. 26. The Ducks cycled through Dylan Raiola, Brock Thomas, and Akili Smith Jr. during last week’s 17-15 loss to UCLA, where Raiola completed just 6 of 19 passes for 43 yards with two interceptions and a fumble. Raiola spent two seasons starting for Nebraska, adding a heavy layer of familiarity to the Huskers’ preparation. Nebraska sits at 5-1 despite dropping a 20-17 decision to Indiana last week, though they will play without safety Jamir Conn. Because Oregon fell out of the AP Top 25 following the UCLA defeat, Nebraska’s 31-game losing streak against ranked opponents is technically paused, removing a psychological barrier for the visitors at Autzen Stadium.

A similar crisis looms for UMass, which opened the season 4-0 but has since lost two straight while cycling through signal-callers. Pop Watson is unlikely to play due to an ankle injury, and freshman Aedan McCarthy was hurt during last week’s 20-19 loss to Miami (Ohio). Drake transfer Logan Inagawa, who completed all six of his passes for 83 yards on the final drive against Miami, is expected to start against Buffalo. The Minutemen rely heavily on a defense allowing just 300.7 yards per game, the best mark in the MAC. Buffalo presents its own vulnerabilities, having turned to backup Jason Wright after Elijah Holmes suffered a season-ending knee injury. Wright has completed just 48.8% of his passes across four starts, forcing the Bulls to lean on running back Messiah Burch, who has topped 100 rushing yards in three consecutive games.

The Big Ten features a grim meeting between two programs struggling under new leadership. Penn State travels to Michigan with neither team holding a conference win. Matt Campbell’s Nittany Lions have dropped three straight, including a 34-13 defeat to Northwestern, and will be without wide receiver Koby Howard, who tallied 344 yards and six total touchdowns before his injury. Kyle Whittingham’s Wolverines return from a bye week following a 20-14 loss at Minnesota where they generated only 180 total yards. Michigan ranks 122th nationally in turnover margin, a stark contrast to Penn State’s plus-5 edge. Whittingham confirmed Bryce Underwood remains the starting quarterback, though Tommy Carr could see action. Penn State’s Rocco Becht threw for 289 yards against USC, but Michigan’s run defense, allowing just 94.6 yards per game, forces the Nittany Lions into obvious passing situations.

Off-field turmoil complicates Vanderbilt’s preparations for Arkansas. The Commodores dismissed wide receiver Kayleb Barnett following an arrest in Nashville after last week’s 52-17 loss to Ole Miss, and three additional players are sidelined with injuries from that game. Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea described the fallout as one of his worst days with the program. Arkansas, led by first-year coach Ryan Silverfield, pushed then-No. 15 Tennessee deep into the third quarter before falling 24-17. The Razorbacks’ passing offense relies almost entirely on Chris Marshall, who accounts for 42 catches and 605 yards, with no other player exceeding 12 receptions. Arkansas converted only 2 of 11 third downs against the Volunteers, a metric that must improve for the Razorbacks to capitalize on Vanderbilt’s depleted roster in their first trip to Nashville since 2011.

Elsewhere on the schedule, No. 18 Oklahoma State visits No. 20 Houston in a matchup between unbeaten Big 12 teams. Eric Morris’s Cowboys have won four straight, while Houston dismantled Kansas State 35-16 behind Conner Weigman’s four touchdown passes to tight end Patrick Overmyer. Maryland, mired in an 11-game Big Ten losing streak and allowing 49 points per conference game, hosts Rutgers with Dylan Lonergan taking over at quarterback. Baylor rides a four-game winning streak into a matchup with TCU, having outscored opponents 158-54 during the run. Virginia travels to SMU as a 9.5-point underdog despite holding a slight edge in ESPN’s defensive efficiency metrics. Florida State also enters the weekend facing internal disruption after dismissing top 2026 signee Chuck Kennon just days before a scheduled matchup against Miami.