California GOP Lawmakers Link Mexican Cartels to Avocado Import Surges

Seven Republican members of California’s congressional delegation are pressing the Trump administration to impose new trade restrictions on Mexican avocados, arguing that cartel-controlled supply chains are artificially inflating import volumes and depressing domestic prices. In a letter delivered Monday to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the lawmakers requested enforceable caps on seasonal surges as part of ongoing negotiations regarding the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The request marks a significant shift in agricultural trade disputes by explicitly framing market volatility as a national security and law enforcement issue rather than a standard subsidy or tariff disagreement. Signatories include Reps. James Gallagher, Jay Obernolte, Ken Calvert, Young Kim, David Valadao, Darrell Issa, and Vince Fong. They contend that criminal organizations in Mexico have embedded themselves in every stage of the avocado supply chain, from illegal land clearing to transportation logistics and USDA inspection interference.

Unlike traditional anti-dumping cases that focus on government subsidies, this appeal targets non-state actors. The lawmakers argue that cartels operate outside legitimate cost structures, utilizing extortion and illicit land acquisition to flood the U.S. market with fruit at prices American growers cannot match. They cited Mexico’s deployment of military forces to avocado-producing regions as validation of the severity of cartel entrenchment in the sector.

U.S. avocado imports reached approximately 2.87 billion pounds in 2025, with Mexico supplying 83% of that volume, according to Department of Agriculture data. While year-round access to Mexican avocados has stabilized consumer prices and expanded the domestic market over the past two decades, California producers argue the current dynamic has shifted from complementary trade to predatory saturation. The letter specifies that surges during critical windows of the 2025 and 2026 California growing seasons have caused price collapses that threaten the viability of domestic orchards.

The proposed remedy is not an embargo but a seasonal safeguard mechanism. Such provisions, often called “seasonal produce solutions” in trade parlance, would trigger automatic import limits when volumes exceed historical baselines during specific months. This approach attempts to balance consumer demand for affordable avocados with protection for domestic harvest periods. Similar mechanisms have been debated in previous USMCA reviews regarding berries and tomatoes but remain politically contentious due to potential retaliatory measures from trading partners.

Implementing cartel-specific trade barriers presents unique verification challenges. Standard customs enforcement relies on documentation and origin certification, neither of which reliably indicates whether a shipment was influenced by organized crime. The USDA temporarily suspended avocado inspections in Michoacán in 2022 after threats against inspectors, highlighting existing vulnerabilities in the regulatory framework that the lawmakers now cite as evidence of compromised oversight.

California remains the sole U.S. state producing avocados commercially, with San Diego, Ventura, and Riverside counties accounting for the majority of domestic output. The industry faces compounding pressures beyond imports, including severe water restrictions, rising labor costs, and persistent drought conditions that have reduced planted acreage in recent years. Domestic production typically peaks between spring and early summer, creating a natural window of vulnerability to import gluts.

The U.S. Trade Representative’s office and the Mexican Embassy in Washington have not yet responded to requests for comment regarding the proposed seasonal safeguards.