Kremlin’s Silence on Greenland Bid Masks Deeper NATO Ambitions

While the international community closely watches U.S. President Donald Trump’s assertive statements regarding the need for American sovereignty over Greenland, the Kremlin remains notably silent. As Beijing condemns Washington and European allies warn of NATO’s demise, Moscow chooses to remain uninvolved, despite the Arctic being its ‘backyard’ and strategic heartland.

This silence from the Kremlin on the Greenland issue could partly stem from a holiday period for Russians, with Orthodox Christians celebrating Christmas on January 7. The Russian leadership has yet to comment on the arrest of its ally, Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, last weekend. The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement criticizing U.S. ‘aggressive actions’ in Venezuela and the seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the Atlantic on Wednesday. However, it remained silent on Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory.

Moscow’s Arctic Stakes

Moscow undoubtedly has more reason than China to object to any potential ‘takeover’ of a giant Arctic entity like Greenland by the U.S., as Russia has focused intently on its growing (and competing) geostrategic interests in the Arctic in recent years. And with good reason: Russia is by far the largest Arctic nation, covering 53% of the Arctic Ocean coastline, and possesses long-standing geopolitical, strategic, and socio-economic interests in the region.

The Arctic serves as a strategic driver for jobs, investment, and economic growth in the Russian economy, with oil, natural gas, and mineral extraction industries, as well as fishing, infrastructure, and transport logistics, particularly related to the Northern Sea Route — a vital Arctic shipping lane for Russia between Europe and Asia.

Furthermore, Russia maintains its sea-based nuclear deterrent in the Arctic and possesses a network of military bases and airfields there, along with a specialized icebreaker fleet to facilitate trade, transport, and resource extraction in the region.

NATO’s Demise

Russia’s Arctic interests could well be affected by the U.S. fixation on Greenland and, specifically, by any move to seize the island by force. However, analysts told CNBC that Moscow is more interested in achieving its ultimate goal — NATO’s destruction.

“The Russian stake in Greenland is small,” Jamie Shea, former Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges at NATO, told CNBC. “The U.S. would have a greater presence in the North Atlantic [if it increased its presence in Greenland], but NATO already limits what Russia can do in the High North, with Canada, Denmark, Norway, and the United Kingdom increasing their military presence and capabilities in the region, and Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Therefore, not much would change strategically for Russia,” added Shea, an international defense and security expert at the Chatham House think tank.

Putin would be “thrilled to see further divisions and inconsistency in NATO, as well as a huge transatlantic crisis that could lead the U.S. to stop its support for Ukraine and withdraw American troops from Europe,” the analyst noted.

If the U.S. were “trapped in the Western Hemisphere,” this would ultimately give Russia more room to increase its influence in Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe. “So, overall, [it would be] a huge victory for Putin, for which he pays no price,” he added.

A ‘Gift to Putin’

Trump’s renewed push for Greenland and the threat of military force, if necessary, sent shockwaves through NATO and its European member states this week.

Both Greenland and Denmark have repeatedly told Trump the island is not for sale or cession, and that any military action to seize it would spell the end of the NATO alliance.

European leaders also reacted to Trump, stating that “it is up to Denmark and Greenland, and only them, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.”

The apparent alarm among European leaders and the increasing likelihood of NATO’s dissolution is “an absolute gift for Putin,” Edward R. Arnold, a senior research fellow at RUSI, told CNBC. “Putin always knew, and Soviet leaders before him, that Russia cannot defeat NATO militarily. It is too strong, therefore it must defeat NATO politically, which is essentially to make Article 5 appear hollow [and to] try to detach the U.S. from European interests to the point where it can expose that,” he added.

If Greenland’s annexation became a more realistic prospect, “NATO would essentially politically self-destruct,” Arnold concluded.