England’s World Cup Hopes Rest on Point Differentials After Tonga Loss

A single 30-12 loss to Tonga has transformed England’s Rugby League World Cup campaign into a mathematical exercise. Brian McDermott’s men cannot simply beat France in Perth on Saturday. They must dismantle them.

The tournament format dictates that progression from Group B-C will likely be decided by point differential. England, having suffered their first-ever defeat against Tonga last weekend, now face a scenario where victories over France and Papua New Guinea on Oct. 30 are mandatory — and winning margins matter as much as the wins themselves.

McDermott responded to the crisis by changing nothing. The 19-man squad remains identical for the 07:35 BST kickoff. Harry Smith and captain George Williams retain the half-back pairing despite being overpowered by Tonga. Luke Thompson stays at prop because Morgan Knowles is still sidelined by an injury sustained before the opener.

Mikey Lewis, whose initial selection over 2025 Super League Man of Steel Jake Connor generated heavy debate, remains on the bench alongside Kallum Watkins and Ben Talty. AJ Brimson keeps the fullback jersey. Jack Welsby operates as an interchange option.

Even if England posts massive scores against France and Papua New Guinea, elimination remains possible without another ball being kicked. Their fate could hinge entirely on the final group match two days later, when Tonga plays 2022 finalists Samoa.

Stuart Barrow took the opposite approach with the women’s team ahead of their 10:05 BST clash against co-hosts Australia. He inserted 19-year-old Jenna Foubister at half-back, benching Georgia Roche.

Foubister won the Woman of Steel award following her domestic season with Wigan Warriors. She scored on her international debut during a 62-0 rout of Wales in August 2025. She will partner Izzy Rowe, who tallied 26 points — two tries and nine conversions — in England’s 70-6 World Cup opener against Wales last Saturday. That performance equaled the record for the most points by an individual England player in a Women’s World Cup match.

Molly Jones replaces Georgia Wilson in the centres. Liv Wood takes the prop spot from Mary Coleman. Lucie Sams joins the interchanges.

Australia represents a severe test. England conceded 90 points to the reigning champions in Las Vegas in March 2025, managing only four in return. It stands as their heaviest defeat on record.

Wales coach Thomas Brindle reshuffled his lineup for Friday’s 07:50 BST game against Samoa — only the second World Cup match in the nation’s history. Amberley Ruck replaces Ffion Lewis. Zoe Heeley shifts from centre to wing, opening space for Jade Mullen in the midfield. Sian Williams starts on the opposite flank, pushing Dani McGifford and Frances Layton out of the starting XIII. Layton moves to the bench alongside Gracie Hobbs.