Packers’ Pass-Heavy Offense Exploits Cowboys’ Weak Secondary

The Green Bay Packers enter Sunday Night Football as 1.5-point home favorites against the Dallas Cowboys with a 53.5-point total, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. But the real story in NFL Week 6 is how a crippled ground game has forced Green Bay into becoming the league’s most pass-dependent offense — and how Dallas owns the worst pass defense in football.

Green Bay ranks fourth in pass rate over expected at 7.7% this season. The reason is structural, not strategic. Running back Josh Jacobs sits on the NFL Commissioner Exempt List. Without him, the Packers rank dead last in expected points added per rush. They cannot run the ball. They have no choice but to throw it.

Quarterback Jordan Love has responded by averaging 281.6 passing yards per game, ranking fourth among 37 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks, per DraftKings data. His median output sits at 312 yards across five starts (145, 197, 312, 367 and 387). He has done this while navigating injuries along the offensive line and the absence of wide receiver Jayden Reed.

Dallas presents a historically vulnerable secondary. The Cowboys have allowed an adjusted net yards per pass attempt of 9.2 this year — the highest mark in the NFL. The gap between Dallas and the third-worst team in that metric is larger than the spread between the third-worst and 11th-worst teams. For context, when the 2023 Miami Dolphins torched defenses through the air, they rarely faced secondaries yielding numbers this inflated so early in a season.

Game script will keep Green Bay throwing regardless of the scoreboard. If the Packers trail, they play at the fastest pace in the NFL. If they lead, they cannot bleed clock on the ground against a high-powered Dallas offense capable of scoring quickly.

Wide receiver Christian Watson operates as the primary beneficiary of this volume. Among 70 wide receivers with at least 100 routes run, Watson ranks seventh in receiving yards per game (94.8) and third in yards per route run (3.10), according to DraftKings Sportsbook tracking. His target share sits at 20.0%, and he commands 33.3% of the team’s air yards.

Watson’s production swings violently week to week. His five-game receiving line reads 147, 41, 96, 47 and 143 yards. In the three games where Love threw for more than 300 yards, Watson topped 100 receiving yards twice. Dallas allows 162.4 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts and 9.67 yards per target, both figures placing them in the bottom tier of the league.

DraftKings lists Love at +169 odds to clear 300 passing yards and Watson at +209 for 100-plus receiving yards. Both lines price in the volatility that defines their weekly stat sheets rather than the ceiling the matchup demands.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com