Bitcoin’s Golden Cross Fades as Inflation Revives Rate-Hike Bets

NEW YORK — Bitcoin’s daily golden cross remained unconfirmed on Friday after a hotter-than-expected inflation report pushed the cryptocurrency down from near $80,000 and sharply increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that monthly core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs to provide a clearer view of underlying price pressures, rose 0.3% in August. Wall Street economists had projected a 0.2% increase, signaling persistent inflation within the U.S. economy.

Bitcoin opened Friday’s daily session at $76,529 and climbed to an intraday high of $79,837. It later dropped to $76,040 as hawkish rate expectations took hold, before stabilizing near $77,438. Despite that late-day pullback, Bitcoin was still up 1.19% over 24 hours.

The CPI release quickly changed the outlook in interest rate futures markets. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which gauges the probability of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions using 30-day Fed funds futures pricing, put the implied probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at roughly 69% shortly after the report. Within a few hours, that probability rose to 86.5%.

Earlier in the session, Bitcoin’s 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) had moved above its 200-day EMA on the daily chart. The pattern, known as a “golden cross,” is closely watched by quantitative and retail traders because it has historically signaled a transition from a bear market to a sustained long-term uptrend. Bitcoin had not recorded a confirmed daily golden cross since November of last year.


Moving averages are lagging indicators based on past closing prices, so they can shift quickly when an asset trades near the crossover point. Bitcoin’s decline to $77,438 pulled the 50-day EMA back below the 200-day EMA, leaving the daily golden cross unconfirmed as the market approached the daily close.

Rate hikes have historically reduced market liquidity by increasing borrowing costs and making conservative yield-bearing assets such as U.S. Treasuries more attractive. Highly speculative, risk-sensitive assets, including Bitcoin and growth-oriented technology stocks, often come under selling pressure during periods of hawkish monetary policy.

Broader trend-strength measures on Bitcoin’s daily chart remained constructive even after the moving averages failed to hold the bullish crossover. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures the strength of a price trend regardless of its direction, registered 45. An ADX reading above the key threshold of 25 typically indicates a strong, active trend rather than directionless market noise, while positive directional movement is currently outpacing negative movement.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements on a scale from 0 to 100, stood at 55.5. Readings above 70 indicate overbought conditions and readings below 30 indicate oversold territory; the current level leaves Bitcoin on the bullish side of neutral, reflecting steady demand despite the macroeconomic headwind.

Shorter-term charts have preserved some of their technical structure, although momentum has weakened. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s golden cross remains intact, with the 50-period EMA above the 200-period EMA since late August.


The 4-hour RSI fell to 43.3 after the afternoon sell-off, moving into bearish territory. The Squeeze Momentum indicator, which tracks periods of low volatility followed by explosive price action, also recently triggered a breakdown, with volatility expanding 3.95% to the downside.

The 4-hour ADX declined to 25.1, barely above the trend-confirming threshold of 25. While the daily chart continues to show a robust long-term trend, immediate intraday buying momentum has slowed considerably.

As investors look toward next week’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting, the conflict between resilient technical trends and a restrictive macroeconomic environment is expected to keep volatility elevated across the digital asset market.