Citigroup Raises Bitcoin Price Target to $113,000 as ETF Inflows and Dollar Weakness Fuel Crypto Rally

Bitcoin’s path toward a new 12-month price target of $113,000 is being paved by a structural shift in institutional capital flows and macroeconomic tailwinds rather than retail speculation alone, according to updated forecasts from Citigroup. The Wall Street bank sharply revised its outlook on Thursday, lifting its projection for the world’s largest cryptocurrency by nearly 38% from a previous estimate of $82,000.

The upgraded forecast arrives as digital assets attempt to solidify a recovery following a punishing drawdown earlier this year. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $124,000 in October 2025 before shedding more than half its value, bottoming out at $58,000 in June. Since breaking back above $80,000 in September for the first time in four months, the asset has stabilized, prompting analysts to reassess the durability of the current cycle.

A primary engine behind the renewed bullish thesis is the anticipated trajectory of crypto-backed exchange-traded funds. Citigroup projects that spot Bitcoin ETFs will attract approximately $5 billion in net inflows over the next 12 months. This represents a critical stabilization for products that experienced severe volatility following their historic launch in January 2024. After absorbing billions in initial capital, spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered nearly $7 billion in combined outflows during May and June, according to analytics platform SoSoValue. That hemorrhage reversed in July, culminating in more than $2 billion in net inflows during September. Sustained positive momentum in these vehicles signals that traditional wealth managers and registered investment advisors are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a permanent portfolio allocation rather than a tactical trade.

Macroeconomic conditions have simultaneously aligned to support risk assets. The U.S. Treasury Department’s recent decision to initiate buybacks of longer-dated government bonds injected liquidity into the financial system and contributed to a measurable weakening of the U.S. dollar. Because Bitcoin is priced in dollars and frequently trades inversely to the greenback, currency depreciation historically lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding digital assets. Unlike previous cycles driven largely by zero-interest-rate policies, the current environment features investors actively seeking alternative stores of value amid shifting sovereign debt management strategies.

Ethereum stands to benefit from the same currents. Citigroup raised its 12-month price target for the second-largest cryptocurrency to $3,028, up from $2,240. While Ethereum operates on a fundamentally different technological architecture—relying on smart contracts and decentralized applications rather than functioning purely as a monetary store of value—it remains highly correlated with Bitcoin’s broader market movements. Increased ETF demand and a softer dollar typically lift the entire sector, though Ethereum’s valuation is additionally sensitive to network activity and staking yields.

Regulatory developments in Washington have further removed downside risks that previously suppressed valuations. The failure of the Clarity Act to advance through the Senate in mid-September initially threatened to prolong jurisdictional disputes between federal agencies over how digital assets should be classified. However, markets shrugged off the legislative defeat. Shortly after the bill stalled, the Securities and Exchange Commission signaled its intention to utilize existing statutory authority to draft industry-specific rules for the remainder of the current administration. By pivoting from congressional gridlock to direct agency rulemaking, regulators provided market participants with a clearer timeline for compliance expectations, reducing the uncertainty premium that had weighed on prices throughout the summer slump.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold tens of billions of dollars in assets under management, serving as the primary conduit for institutional exposure. As of early October, daily trading volumes across the approved U.S. spot products continue to reflect sustained participation from both market makers and long-term allocators.